Opta gives Ajax and Twente near-certain European progression chances

Ajax and FC Twente have the strongest prospects among the six Dutch clubs competing in Europe, according to Opta projections reported by Voetbal International. Both have a 99.58 per cent chance of reaching the Conference League’s next phase after victories over FC Midtjylland and Pafos respectively.

Twente are rated more likely to finish in the top eight, with an 86.19 per cent probability compared with Ajax’s 55.45 per cent. A place in the first eight would allow either club to bypass the intermediate round.

The outlook is also positive for the Dutch Europa League representatives. Despite losing at home to Juventus, AZ retain an 85.21 per cent chance of advancing. NEC are close behind on 84.71 per cent following their win against Omonia Nicosia. Opta places AZ’s top-eight probability at 7.24 per cent and NEC’s at 8.14 per cent, making a top-24 finish the more likely route for both sides.

The Champions League picture is considerably less encouraging. Feyenoord lost at De Kuip against Inter and are given only a 27.54 per cent chance of progressing. PSV’s prospects are higher at 46.42 per cent, although the Eindhoven side also suffered a home defeat, against Club Brugge. Opta rates a top-eight finish as highly unlikely for either club: 0.39 per cent for PSV and 0.04 per cent for Feyenoord.